U.S. chipmakers woke up to rare good news from Washington. After months of uncertainty over export rules, President Donald Trump announced that Nvidia and other American semiconductor firms will be allowed to sell their H200 artificial intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China, in exchange for a 25% cut of those sales flowing to the U.S. government.
Within hours, shares of Nvidia and AMD were trading higher in the premarket, reflecting investor relief that at least one category of advanced AI hardware is no longer completely shut out of the world’s second-largest economy.
The Deal: H200 Yes, Blackwell No
The green light applies to Nvidia’s H200 chip – a powerful accelerator from its Hopper generation – and, by extension, similar products from peers like AMD and Intel under comparable conditions. Nvidia’s newest and most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips, however, remain off-limits to China under U.S. export controls.
For Nvidia, this is a partial victory. The company has lobbied hard to regain access to China, a market it has estimated at tens of billions of dollars for AI GPUs, but must now work within a framework where Washington takes a sizeable share of revenue and Beijing may still limit what local firms are allowed to buy.
Market Reaction: Relief, But Not Euphoria
In early trading, investors treated the move as a modest positive. Nvidia and AMD both climbed in premarket as traders recalibrated the risk of a prolonged revenue drought from China. However, gains faded once reports suggested Chinese authorities might allow only restricted access to H200 chips, potentially keeping overall volumes in check.
The initial bounce nevertheless underscores how tightly AI chip stocks are now linked to policy headlines. Each new statement from Washington or Beijing – bans, exemptions, or partial deals – can reprice expectations for growth in China overnight.
Strategic Stakes For The AI Race
Beyond daily price moves, the deal illustrates a new kind of industrial policy: the U.S. government greenlighting exports of important technology while capturing a direct share of revenue. Trade experts have called similar arrangements unprecedented, arguing they signal a world where access to foreign markets for critical tech may increasingly require quasi-tax agreements with governments.
Critics warn that even older-generation AI chips like H200 can meaningfully boost China’s AI capabilities and erode the hardware gap that U.S. policymakers have tried to maintain. Supporters counter that exporting slightly dated chips under tight conditions is better than forcing China to accelerate homegrown alternatives that could eventually compete globally.
What It Means For Investors
For Nvidia and AMD shareholders, the H200 decision is best read as a moderate de-risking event, not a game-changing pivot. Analysts note that current company forecasts still do not heavily rely on China revenue, and they are waiting for evidence of actual orders before upgrading long-term earnings assumptions.
In the near term, the bigger driver for AI chip stocks remains global demand for data centers, model training and enterprise AI rollouts. China access may add upside at the margin, but the policy path is likely to stay volatile – and that volatility will continue to spill into Nvidia’s and AMD’s charts.
Reference: Forbes – “Nvidia, AMD Rise In Premarket After Trump Greenlights Sale Of Advanced AI Chips To China” (Siladitya Ray), plus additional coverage of the H200 export decision.
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